Sharkey, Howes & Javer

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Synopsis

Podcast by Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Episodes

  • Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and Inflation

    Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and Inflation

    04/05/2021 Duration: 12min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the increase in consumer spending and the uptick in inflation. Inflation has seen a small increase, mainly driven from the current energy sector. There has been an increase in consumer spending, with the fastest pace of consumer spending on record this past March. The question is, will it continue and where is the money coming from? Personal savings has continued to grow to all-time highs as people continue to wait to spend money on travel, entertainment, etc. Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - U.S. Retail Sales rise at second fastest pace on record - Headline CPI grows higher, driven by energy, yet remains below 2% - Personal savings continue to grow to all-time highs - Earnings and profits drive stock market higher

  • Inside the Economy: Increased Inflation and the Housing Market

    Inside the Economy: Increased Inflation and the Housing Market

    20/04/2021 Duration: 09min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recent change in inflation and the current housing market. There has been a boost in headline inflation, driven by rising fuel prices and increased travel. Is this trend here to stay or is it a temporary reaction? Personal savings grew over the last year, but consumers are looking to make up for lost time with increased spending in 2021. Low housing inventory is driving up prices, but which sector of the housing market has the lowest supply? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: -Retail Sales hit a new high after a year of increased savings -Headline CPI grows higher, driven by fuel prices, while Core CPI stays under 2% -Gasoline supply returns to pre-pandemic levels as travel improves -Sparce inventory in low-income housing has driven up prices, while interest rates remain low -State and local tax revenue continued to grow in 2020, despite the pandemic

  • Inside the Economy: The Plan for Spending and Excessive Savings

    Inside the Economy: The Plan for Spending and Excessive Savings

    06/04/2021 Duration: 10min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the future of individual and government spending. Personal income has seen a boost in the last year, thanks to unemployment benefits and government stimulus. President Biden has released details for a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Where does he plan to spend the most money? Which tech giant has added over half a million jobs in the last year? Tune in to hear about all of this and more! Key Takeaways: - GDP numbers continue to slowly increase - Biden’s Infrastructure plan includes spending $620 billion on transportation, with a large allotment to electric vehicles - Corporate profits continue to grow - In the last year, Amazon hired more employees than 136 other top companies combined - Corporate taxes are relatively low, but most likely will see an increase

  • Inside the Economy: Interest Rates and the Inflation Boogeyman

    Inside the Economy: Interest Rates and the Inflation Boogeyman

    23/03/2021 Duration: 10min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current interest rate environment and fears of inflation. The 10 year treasury has continued to rise forcing bond prices lower. Where will the 10 year yield end up? Fears around inflation may be outweighing reality. The yield curve is steepening, but what does that mean? Will the new administration be able to close the funding gap? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: - Oil prices remain steady - Unemployment continues to trend in the right direction - The housing market is still robust - New business applications are on the rise

  • Inside the Economy: Debt Absorption and Rising Rates

    Inside the Economy: Debt Absorption and Rising Rates

    09/03/2021 Duration: 08min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the nation’s debt levels and the direction of interest rates. The recent movement in Congress on another stimulus package will add another $1.9 trillion to the nation’s debt. Are these debt levels sustainable? What’s the impact of the debt and will it be manageable when interest rates rise? The stock market has experienced recent volatility, specifically in the tech sector. Where will the index be at the end of 2021? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • Current stimulus package is around 9% of GDP • Personal Income continues to rise due to stimulus checks • Oil prices reach mid $60s • Unemployment continues to decline

  • Inside the Economy: Inflation Status and the Bond Market

    Inside the Economy: Inflation Status and the Bond Market

    23/02/2021 Duration: 13min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the state of inflation and the future of the bond market. The yield curve continues to normalize as long-term interest rates slowly creep up. Overall inflation has stayed low, but there are sectors that have seen major price inflation. We are still in the midst of a bull market; how do the last 11 months compare to previous bull markets? Investment-grade bonds were a place of comfort during a volatile year, but has that changed in 2021? Tune in to learn more! Key Take-aways: - Textbooks and college tuition led price inflation from 1996-2006 - As industrial and manufacturing production return to pre-pandemic levels, so does U.S. imports and exports - The current bull market is up 75% from the low in March, the second largest bull market return - Leveraged loans and high-yield debt start the year off strong - Paying off all student debt would cost $1.5 trillion

  • Inside the Economy: The U.S. Consumer and Interest Rates

    Inside the Economy: The U.S. Consumer and Interest Rates

    10/02/2021 Duration: 11min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recovery of consumer spending. Since the start of the pandemic, consumer spending is trending up and credit card balances are trending down. Will this continue in 2021 and what impact will it have on GDP? The Federal Reserve expects to keep rates low for at least 12-18 months. As the Fed continues to buy debt, what will that do to the yield curve and treasury markets? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: - Oil prices are steadily increasing. - Fourth quarter GDP estimates are around 4%, we expect it to be revised higher. - 30-year mortgages are still under 3%. - Unemployment steadily declines.

  • Inside the Economy: Where the Money is Spent and Saved

    Inside the Economy: Where the Money is Spent and Saved

    26/01/2021 Duration: 11min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine where U.S. citizens and the government are spending money. As the end of year numbers start to roll in, it looks like consumers did not hold back when it came to holiday spending. Part of that spending included an increase in imported goods, but one import is being left behind as the U.S. produces more stateside. Many public companies are sitting on a plethora of cash, but what about Americans and non-profits? The value of real estate continues to increase, but are the trends far off from what we have seen historically? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: - We are importing more goods than ever, but less petroleum - Americans still have trillions of dollars sitting in savings accounts - Household asset values continue to climb, a lot in thanks to real estate values - Manufacturing has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels - The U.S. dollar is at its lowest point since 2018

  • Inside the Economy: Economic Data for the New Year

    Inside the Economy: Economic Data for the New Year

    12/01/2021 Duration: 12min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the start of 2021 in terms of economic data. Unemployment holds steady around 6.7%. Manufacturing data continues to expand and improve. Oil prices break $50 to start the year. What impacts will Saudi Arabia and Russia have on the oil markets in 2021? Government debt continues to pile up. What are the risks and is it a problem? State revenues are looking better than projected. Will there be another stimulus? Tune in to find out. Key Takeaways: - Annual Hiring is picking up - Oil prices break $50 - The Federal Deficit continues to climb - Inflation is still muted, but treasury yields are creeping higher.

  • Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending Supports U.S. Businesses

    Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending Supports U.S. Businesses

    20/10/2020 Duration: 13min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the spending trends of U.S. consumers and the effect on domestic businesses. As unemployment rates improve, Americans get back to spending their hard-earned money. With used car sales continuing to climb—is public transportation doomed? The flight to the suburbs continues as downtown rental vacancies increase and new construction housing reaches a new high. This spending trend has had a positive impact on the U.S. economy as many businesses are seeing increased revenues. How has this spending trend impacted new business applications? Tune in to hear about all this and more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. consumers continue to spend, especially on used cars and new build homes • Downtown rental vacancies across the U.S. reach new heights • Company revenues are recovering, boosted by consumer spending Commercial and industrial lending increases as interest rates remain low • Applications for new U.S. businesses have grown by almost 40% year-over-year

  • Inside the Economy: U.S. Consumer  Business during COVID recovery

    Inside the Economy: U.S. Consumer & Business during COVID recovery

    06/10/2020 Duration: 13min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about U.S. consumer and business trends. Consumers are paying down debt and household net worth continues to increase. The travel & leisure industries have not seen a rebound due to consumers staying away, however retail car sales are almost back to normal. How long will it take for certain industries to recover? On the business side, bond issuance and borrowing maintain their rising pace. What is the trend in new business applications? Tune in to find out and hear more! Key Takeaways: • Manufacturing is beginning to stabilize • Unemployment is mostly unchanged from last month, but more major companies are planning layoffs soon • Retail car sales are on the rise and almost back to normal • Delinquency rates are down slightly 80% of the economy has adapted, the other 20% may need a vaccine before returning to normal

  • Inside the Economy: An Improving Economy amongst COVID-19

    Inside the Economy: An Improving Economy amongst COVID-19

    23/09/2020 Duration: 12min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the improving job market and current debt trends during the coronavirus pandemic. Unemployment rates continue to improve as people get back to work and stop collecting unemployment benefits. A combination of spending less and uncertainty surrounding the future has Americans paying down debt. Where are debt delinquencies increasing and where are they decreasing? Many U.S. citizens are sitting on additional cash, but how much cash is currently sitting in the U.S. banking system? Corporations continue to issue new bonds as money remains “cheap” due to low interest rates. Tune in to hear about all of this and more! Key Takeaways: • Unemployment rates and outstanding benefit claims continue to decrease • Unemployment benefits made-up over 30% of U.S. personal income, but has declined • Outstanding consumer debt has reduced as Americans pay off loans • There is currently over $12 trillion in cash sitting in American’s savings accounts • Gross corporate bond issuance in

  • Inside the Economy: Unemployment, Foreclosures and COVID 19

    Inside the Economy: Unemployment, Foreclosures and COVID 19

    25/08/2020 Duration: 12min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the employment trends. Unemployment remains high, however new jobs are being created in specific sectors. On a positive note, retail spending at non store retailers have increased year over year. Will this trend continue? The extra $600 per month of Federal unemployment has stopped and to no surprise, mortgage delinquencies are on the rise. We also look at remittances to Mexico, the dollar and gold prices. Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: - Unemployment remains high overall, but in pockets of the job market hiring is robust - Retail spending continues to trend upwards - Foreclosures and evictions are starting to increase - Workers in the US are sending more money back to Mexico to support families - Less oil transactions and international tourism are a few factors contributing to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices

  • 08 10 2020

    08 10 2020

    11/08/2020 Duration: 13min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we reflect on the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment trends from the second quarter. What was the impact on GDP as a result of the lockdown? As spending and employment rates continue to recover, what is in store for the remainder of 2020? More job openings are becoming available and temporary layoffs are returning to the workforce, but what is the trend with permanent layoffs? Consumer spending has been down since many are staying closer to home, but it seems as if stimulus spending has helped boost spending during this difficult year. What industries have seen the direct impact of restricted spending? Tune in to hear this and much more! Key Takeaways: • GDP declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2 of 2020. • Temporary layoffs have dropped, but permanent job loss has been slowly climbing • Job openings are beginning to increase • Decreased spending has led to less outstanding credit as Americans have more money to pay off loans and credit cards • Travel, real esta

  • Inside the Economy: The State of the Economy and COVID-19

    Inside the Economy: The State of the Economy and COVID-19

    28/07/2020 Duration: 11min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to monitor economic data as it continues to improve. Fiscal stimulus comes in many forms, like the direct payments or federal unemployment benefits, and has totaled more than 12% of GDP. What will the next bill look like from Congress and how much more money will be added to the national debt? Gold has had a strong rally as buyers speculate on future inflation and the value of the dollar. What’s to come over the next several months? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • Economic data continues to improve with retail sales, production increases, and housing data. • Stock market indices continue their recovery lead by big tech as earnings show better than expected. • Gold is rallying and another stimulus bill from Congress is coming soon.

  • Inside the Economy: The Pandemic Job Market and its Impact

    Inside the Economy: The Pandemic Job Market and its Impact

    14/07/2020 Duration: 13min

    Today on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the impact that COVID-19 has had on the U.S. job market. As a society, we have witnessed numerous recessions over the last 75 years but none quite like this. How will the uncertainty regarding Coronavirus effect unemployment over the long-term? As Americans wait to see what is next, many are sitting on more cash than usual. How is this impacting spending and has it affected stock market returns? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • COVID-19 spurred a dramatic change in unemployment numbers, different from previous recessions • Although unemployment numbers remain high, we are starting to see an increase in hiring and job openings again • We have seen an increase in mortgage delinquency but it is nowhere near 2008-09 This year has been a volatile year for all asset classes but gold and 10-year Treasuries remain on top • Corporate debt and money supply continue to climb

  • Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and COVID 19

    Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and COVID 19

    30/06/2020 Duration: 11min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, we refocus on the biggest driver of the economy, consumer spending. Retail sales were up in May, auto sales are climbing back and sales of new homes returned to a level of normalcy. An upward trend in consumer spending is a sign of economic relief, however states and local governments may still have challenges ahead. How has COVID-19 affected state revenues and what is the implication for municipal bonds? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • Consumer Spending is on an upward trajectory and May data showed a big uptick in retail, auto and new home sales. • Forbearances have mostly paused, and the housing market is returning to normal even though most states still are not allowing physical showings. • State and Local governments have seen a big drop in revenue. This may point to more aid from the federal government.

  • Inside the Economy: Catching Up with COVID-19

    Inside the Economy: Catching Up with COVID-19

    16/06/2020 Duration: 14min

    This week on “Inside the Economy”, Americans have spent the last few months saving more and spending less. As spending begins to resuscitate, where are we seeing inflation in the system? We are starting to see an increase in travelers making their way through TSA but are nowhere near the 2.5 million flyers per day we saw during summer 2019. How are the airlines coping with the slower summer days? Through a volatile market, who are the current winners and losers? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • Initial jobless claims are decreasing in Colorado while some are going back to work— others are still hesitant to spend their hard-earned money • The demand for recreation services and outdoor equipment has increased prices • Home sales are picking back up as Americans are staying local • Airlines are leaning on CARES Act Support to navigate through hard times • The U.S. dollar has been losing strength in conjunction with oil prices and low interest rates

  • Inside the Economy: The New Normal and COVID-19

    Inside the Economy: The New Normal and COVID-19

    02/06/2020 Duration: 17min

    This week on Inside the Economy, we address the beginning of the end of a great social experiment. Human behaviors have changed and will continue to evolve as businesses and consumers move forward. The S&P 500 continues to separate itself from the grim economic data with positive performance. Why is there such a disconnect? One catalyst may be how quickly the Federal Reserve and Congress acted to maintain liquidity in capital markets. As we adjust to the impact of COVID-19, the markets may start focusing more on other potential volatile events, like what is going on in Hong Kong and an upcoming presidential election. Tune in to hear more!

  • Inside the Economy: Spending Patterns and Coronavirus

    Inside the Economy: Spending Patterns and Coronavirus

    19/05/2020 Duration: 08min

    Today on “Inside the Economy with SH&J”, we take a look at where people are investing their hard-earned money. Americans are spending less on their credit cards but are investing in real estate and home improvement projects. While some are purchasing new homes, others are struggling to make their mortgage payments. Will the missed payments have a long-term economic impact? The stock market has made a slow but steady recovery, have we seen the worst of it or is there more volatility to come? Amazon has proven it can weather the storm, but how are other retailers holding up?

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