Analysis

Technology has been replacing manufacturing jobs for years. Is the same about to happen to white-collar work? Will new faster, smarter computers start destroying more jobs than they create? Technologists and economists are now arguing that we are approaching a turning point, where professional jobs are becoming automated, leaving less and less work for humans to do. David Baker investigates the evidence and asks what this means for society, the individual and equality. Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Should we beware the machines? Professor Stephen Hawking has warned the rise of Artificial Intelligence could mean the end of the human race. He's joined other renowned scientists urging computer programmers to focus not just on making machines smarter, but also ensuring they promote the good and not the bad. How seriously should we take the warnings that super-intelligent machines could turn on us? And what does AI teach us about what it means to be human? Helena Merriman examines the risks, the opportunities and how we might avoid being turned into paperclips. Producer: Sally Abrahams.

Social mobility is a good thing - right? Politicians worry that not enough people from less-privileged backgrounds get the opportunity to move up in life. But are we prepared to accept that others lose out - and move in the opposite direction? Jo Fidgen explores the implications of downward social mobility. Producer: Charlotte McDonald.

Does free speech include a right to cause offence? Many thinkers have insisted that it must - but debate has raged for millennia over where the limits to insult can be set. While some maintain Enlightenment values must include permission to shock, offend and even injure, there is a growing sense that rights must be balanced by responsibilities to one's community, in speech as well as action. And as technology has given each of us an worldwide platform to express any idea, anywhere, the potential for instant, global offence has only grown. How are we to define how much is too much - and what really distinguishes insult from injury? Edward Stourton speaks to historians, theologians and philosophers to explore the outer limits of free expression. Producer: Polly Hope.

Scotland last year showed how dramatic referendums can be. So what would an in-out vote on the EU be like? What would be the crucial strategies for a winning campaign? The stakes would be huge for the UK, and if those who want a vote get their way, this could happen within the next few years. Chris Bowlby talks to key potential players and observers about their fears and hopes, lessons drawn from Scotland, and campaign plans already being made behind the scenes. Producer: Chris Bowlby.

'Maskirovka' is the Russian military strategy of deception, involving techniques to surprise and deceive the enemy. Lucy Ash looks back over its long history from repelling invading Mongols in the 14th Century, to its use to confound the Nazis in World War II, to the current conflict in Ukraine. Translated literally maskirovka means "a little masquerade", but it also points to strategic, operational, physical and tactical duplicity. When heavily-armed, mask-wearing gunmen - labelled the 'little green men' - took over government buildings in Crimea last year, was this a classic example of maskirovka in the 21st century? All nations use deception as a strategy in war, but Analysis asks whether any other nation has pursued guile as an instrument of policy so long and so ardently as Russia. Producer: Katy Hickman.

Mark Mardell forecasts how the world could change in 2015, aided by top BBC journalists Lyse Doucet, Carrie Gracie, Kamal Ahmed and Bridget Kendall.

We firmly believe that our choices - about what we eat and how we vote - reflect the inner core of our being. But do those choices originate in principle - or simply because of what we have done in the past? Psychologist Nick Chater asks if precedent matters more than principles and discovers a complex interplay between the two forces which govern the choices we make. Producer: Simon Coates.

The recent so called Trojan Horse dispute in some Birmingham schools shone a light on how separately from the liberal British mainstream a significant conservative bloc of British Muslims wants to live. Although some Muslim parents objected, most seemed happy to go along with rigorous gender segregation, the rejection of sex education and ban on music and arts lessons. Why is it that so many British Muslims - especially from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds - seem to be converging much more slowly, if at all, on liberal British norms? Is this a problem in a liberal society and what are the future trends likely to be? David Goodhart, of the think tank Demos, visits Leicester in search of some answers. He listens to many different Muslim voices from a mufti who advises Muslims on how to navigate everyday life in a non-Muslim society to a liberal reformer who is dismayed at seeing more women wearing the niqab. East is East (extract with Jane Horrocks and Ayub Khan) is playing at the Trafalgar Studios, Lon

Margaret Heffernan explores why big organisations so often make big mistakes - and asks if the cure could be the aviation industry's model of a "just culture". In the past ten years, there have been a string of organizational failures - from BP to the banks, from the Catholic Church to Rotherham. In each instance, hundreds, even thousands of people could see what was going on but acted as though they were blind. Silence ensured the problems continued and allowed them to grow. The conditions that create the phenomenon called "wilful blindness" are pervasive across institutions, both public and private. Wherever there have been cases of organisational failure you typically find individuals who are over-stretched, distracted and exhausted. They cannot see because they cannot think. Businesswoman and writer Margaret Heffernan argues that the solution is a "just culture"; which means organizations that encourage people to speak up early and often when things go adrift, without fear of being silenced. Contribut

Economist Jonathan Portes assesses how well the government has implemented its controversial welfare reforms. The government describes the programme as "the most ambitious, fundamental and radical changes to the welfare system since it began". When the Coalition came to power in 2010, welfare - not including pensions - was costing the country nearly £100 billion a year. Iain Duncan Smith, the secretary of state for work and pensions, was given the task of making work pay and - in so doing - taking millions of people off benefit and saving the country billions. Influential figures from parliament, the civil service and one of Iain Duncan Smith's closest advisers offer revealing accounts of what's been happening during those past 4 years. Economist Jonathan Portes asks whether these changes are a vital strategy to stem a welfare system spiralling out of control or - as some argue - nothing short of a fiasco, which has caused genuine hardship? Producer: Adele Armstrong.

What is a caliphate? What ideals does such an Islamic state embody - and how could or should it be implemented? Analysis consults a range of voices to explore how the concept has evolved and has been expressed over the centuries. Edward Stourton talks to historians, religious scholars and political thinkers who offer their perspectives on caliphates of the past, the revivalist rhetoric of the present and the beliefs shared by many Muslims about its future return. Contributors: Prof Hugh Kennedy, School of Oriental and African Studies Sheikh Ruzwan Mohammed, Sunni theologian and scholar Rebecca Mastertron, Shiite commentator Dr Reza Pankhurst, author, "The Inevitable Caliphate?" Dr Caroline Finkel, author, "Osman's Dream: the History of the Ottoman Empire" Dr Salman Sayyid, Leeds University, author, "Recalling the Caliphate" Dr Abdou Filali Ansary, Aga Khan University Presenter: Edward Stourton Producer: Polly Hope.

Politicians love talking about supporting families. But, asks Jo Fidgen, do they understand modern family life? And how far can or should the state change the way families live? There's endless focus on young children and childcare, while family care for the elderly is rarely mentioned. She hears from policy insiders, those who have to define families to make their businesses work, individuals facing extraordinary challenges as family life changes with society and across the generations. Producer: Chris Bowlby Editor: Hugh Levinson.

Robert Peston tests the arguments made by the authors of a new book who claim the financial crisis was caused by exploding household debt - not by the banks. But are they right? Now the BBC's Economics Editor, he witnessed at first hand every twist and turn of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. He first exposed the crisis at Northern Rock as well as revealing the failure of Lehman Brothers. This makes him the ideal interviewer to probe the arguments and conclusions of "The House of Debt", a radical new study of the recession and the lessons to be learnt from it. In discussion with the book's authors, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, he subjects their arguments to rigorous scrutiny. They challenge the conventional wisdom that the banks were to blame for the recession in the US and UK. They argue that the real villain was the doubling between 2000 and 2007 in total American household debt to $14 trillion. Much of this was owed by borrowers with the poorest credit ratings. When the house price bubble burst and inc

What should we eat? Jo Fidgen talks to the influential American writer Michael Pollan about what food is - and what it isn't. In an interview before an audience at the London School of Economics and Political Science he criticises the way the food industry has promoted highly-processed products delivering hefty doses of salt, sugar and fat. He believes that the plethora of accompanying health claims have left us more confused than ever about what food really is, where it has come from and its impact on our health and the environment. His solution? To cook at home. He argues that this simple change will guarantee a healthy diet and stop us relying on big food companies to feed us. It is also, he says, a profoundly political act. But is it a realistic proposition for busy working families or simply a middle-class ideology? Producer: Sally Abrahams.

The downturn's made everyone worry more about money. But while we may want to be thriftier, Chris Bowlby discovers why we're stuck with high levels of personal and household debt. Credit has become a way of life and new technology makes it ever more accessible. We know we ought to save more for, say, old age, but pensions seem distant and a dodgy investment, while the government and others are desperate to encourage revived consumer spending . Borrowing to buy houses seems to many the best financial bet. Is there an alternative approach out there? A wide range of voices from different communities explore the mixture of hard financial fact, psychology and morality that's shaped our financial behaviour in such a turbulent few years. Producer: Chris Bowlby Editor: Hugh Levinson.

Something strange has been happening in the British economy. For over six years now, wages have fallen for most of us, which is unprecedented in British modern history. And despite the return of economic growth, wages still have not picked up. What has happened? And crucially is this a long term problem - is this the end of the pay rise? Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, explores the mystery of our falling wages and finds out how it is related to how productive we are, but also to how wages themselves are shared out between the top earners and the rest of us. Producer: Estelle Doyle Contributors: ** Nikki King, Honorary Chairman, Isuzu Trucks UK ** Andy Haldane, chief economist, Central Bank of England ** Jonathan Haskel, Professor of Economics, Imperial College Business School ** Paul Gregg, Professor of Economic and social policy, University of Bath ** Nick Crafts, Professor of Economic History, Warwick University ** Andrew Sentance, former member of Central Bank MPC ** Matt Whi

Why have the Tories attracted the label 'the nasty party'? Tory supporter Robin Aitken explores why the phrase took hold, and why it matters in key national debates today. Senior and influential figures in the Tory party's recent history offer revealing personal accounts of what they believe and how the party is perceived by the outside world. Producer: Chris Bowlby Editor: Hugh Levinson.

What is the best form of capitalism? The free-market form found in countries such as the UK and the United States, or the more collaborative model which is common across Northern Europe? Some British politicians, from both the left and right, are somewhat starry-eyed when it comes to the way other countries run their economy and have even suggested the UK could improve its lot by importing practices found across Scandinavia and Germany. But is that remotely possible? In this edition of Analysis, Britain politics correspondent for The Economist Jeremy Cliffe investigates the different forms of capitalism defined by the Varieties of Capitalism school - most-famous for the book of the same name published in 2001. He begins by working out what makes a 'Liberal Market Economy' and a 'Coordinated Market Economy', and then digs deeper to find out how these different models formed in the first place. He discovers a deep web of intertwined government institutions which have been shaped over decades and centuries

There's a new government in Kiev and Crimea is firmly in Russian hands. The political map of eastern Europe has changed dramatically in the last few months. But are Moscow's actions in the Ukraine crisis evidence of a long-term strategy to reassert Russia as a world power? Or are they the actions of a weakened government scrabbling to keep up with events? Edward Stourton investigates whether Vladimir Putin, former KGB Colonel and holder of a black belt in Judo, is playing a strategic game of chess , or just a high-stakes game of poker. Contributors: Anne Applebaum, historian Anna Arutunyan, author of The Putin Mystique Mary Dejevsky, columnist for The Independent Valery Korovin, Deputy Director, Eurasia Movement Sir Roderick Lyne, former UK ambassador to Russia Sergey Markov, Director of the Institute of Political Studies, Moscow Vyacheslav Nikonov, Member of the Russian State Duma Gleb Pavolovsky, senior political adviser to Boris Yeltsin and co-founder of the Foundation for Effective Politics, Moscow Mik