Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil drops below $90 • 30-year mortgage rates above 6% • Natural gas prices continue to rise • Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and housing. Layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at low levels, along with increases in the labor participation rate. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have jumped as we continue to see mortgage rates increase and home prices adjust down, but how is this different from what we saw in 2008? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Jobless claims hold steady • Corporate profit margins on solid footing • Mortgages approaching 6% • Consumer spending starting to slow

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation & housing. The Consumer Price Index shows us that inflation may have hit its peak, but goods and services spending remain strong and the Fed continues to show its willingness to raise rates to try to tame inflation. The supply of homes in the U.S. has risen as new loan applications fall with the increase in mortgage rates, but what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • US industrial production continues to rise • Used car market weakens • Oil hovering around $90 • Mortgage rates back up above 5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt & real estate. Consumer debt continues to rise alongside a decline in the personal saving rate to pre-pandemic levels. Home prices have started to come down as mortgage rates rise above 5%, but what does this mean for new home buyers and the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 estimated earnings remain strong • Unemployment numbers shift lower • Oil back down to $90 • Major indices trend up in July

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will dive a little deeper into June’s headline vs core inflation numbers. As oil drops below $100/barrel, will that signal the peak of inflation? In the housing market, loan applications decline to a level we haven’t seen in over two decades. Where will mortgage rates end up? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year treasury yield is around 2.9% • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • Jobless claims tick up

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer prices and potential recession. As inflation continues to remain high, we are seeing increased gas & food prices but also lower logistics costs & home prices. What does that mean for our wallets in the coming months? There has been talk of recession, but what does that mean for the consumer and are there any surprises in the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 forecasted earnings remain strong • Oil back below $100 • U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen • New U.S. manufacturing construction hits new highs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, all eyes continue to be on inflation as well as mortgage rates. We’ve seen energy, metals and other commodities trend lower, which should create some relief in the overall inflation numbers. As the Fed continues to raise short term rates, mortgage rates continue to climb. This is creating some softness in home prices and new homes being built. Will this impact the rental market? Tune in to find out. Key Takeaways: • Oil falls off highs, down to $104 per barrel • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • The 10-year treasury yield is above 3%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and housing. With credit card spending on the rise and savings rates moving down, how long will this strong consumer spending last? Net home sales have seen a national pullback, and with mortgage rates in the high 5% range, where do we think the housing market is going? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings ratio adjusts down to 16 • Oil above $120 • Core inflation sitting at 6% • Unemployment rate of 3.6%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a full economic agenda including inflation, the stock market and news on global food supplies. Job openings continue to rise, and data suggest people 65 and older haven’t returned to the workforce since April 2020. Will we see this change due to higher gas and food prices? The stock market continues to experience volatility and how bad is the water crisis in the middle east? Tune in to find out. Key Takeaways: • Oil remains above $100 per barrel • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • The 10-year treasury yield falls to 2.85%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the latest reports and economic data. First quarter GDP numbers surprised to the down side and reported as -1.4% year over year. The contraction in GDP largely was due to the trade imbalance and less government spending. Will we see more negative GDP numbers in Q2? We also look at rising yields and mortgage rates. Will the Federal Reserve aggressively continue their rate hike campaign and what does that mean for the global economy? Tune in to find out. Key Takeaways: • Oil remains above $100 per barrel • 30 year mortgage rates climb above 5% • The 10 year treasury yield reaches 3%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Employment and Inflation. We are currently seeing elevated costs of employment, along with low jobless claims, but what does that mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to remain at elevated levels, but will the Federal Reserve raising interest rates help to bring it back down? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil above $100 • Natural gas prices increase • 30-year mortgage rates up to 5% • 2021 average tax returns see a boost

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the consumer and corporate profits. The labor force participation rate is climbing and has almost returned to pre-pandemic lows. Mortgage rates are rising, up almost to 5% on a 30-year fixed. Will this impact household spending? How about savings? Corporate profit margins turned in another good quarter. Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil stays around $100 per barrel • Mortgage payment to income ratio climbs • Major indices have started to rebound from recent lows.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve and energy prices. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, how will that effect inflation and where do we think interest rates will be by the end of the year? Energy prices are sitting at elevated levels, but how long will this persist and what does supply look like going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil stays above $100 • Equity markets rebound on earnings outlook • 30-year mortgage rates up to 4% • Retail sales up 8% from pre pandemic levels • Unemployment under 4%

Inside the Economy: Ukraine by SHJ Wealth Advisors

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED meeting and the economy. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, what comments do we expect to see on inflation and interest rates, and how will that effect markets? The economy continues to move along nicely as we saw all-time highs in holiday sales and household spending continuing to rise, but where do supply chain issues, wages, and inflation factor into this story? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - Equity markets turn down to start 2022 - Crude Oil up past $85 - Increase in mortgage rates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and government spending. We continue to see inflation at elevated levels, but with low wage growth, a strong dollar, and core services inflation sitting around 4%, where do we see inflation going in the future? State and Local Governments are seeing an uptick in revenues as they continue to get some help at the Federal level. But once the Covid Federal support for the consumer goes away, how much will they be on the hook for? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - S&P 500 Price/Earnings leveling off - Crude Oil continuing to stay around $70 - Jobless Claims continue to decrease

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a few different topics. Jobless claims are trending down and permanent job loss from 2020 has recovered quicker than in 2008 and 2001. Some countries have tapped into strategic oil reserves and the recent price decline reflects the impact of extra supply in the market. Estate Tax revenue has been cut in half since 2017. How will the government look to increase future revenue? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: - Savings rate have reversed to pre-pandemic levels - 10-year treasury is starting to tick up - M2 Money Supply continues to grow

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss numerous topics. Jobless claims continue to drop, trending towards pre-pandemic lows. Inflation numbers continue to make headlines. Is inflation coming from the push or pull side? What’s the difference? Revenue of the largest U.S. companies continues to trend upwards. How has the recovery been overseas? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - 30-year mortgage rates slightly drop below 3% - Employment growth has favored higher educated workers - Oil inventories and demand are trending towards pre pandemic levels

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED and the consumer. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, we are seeing the market has already reacted to the potential of raising of rates in the somewhat near future. But with the yield curve already flattening and mortgage rates rising, what do we anticipate from the FED over the next 12 months? The consumer is still King as we see consumer spending continuing to rise into the holidays, delinquency rates in single family homes moving down, home sales increasing, and unemployment numbers getting back to pre-covid levels. Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - Projected US GDP comes in at 2.0 YOY for the 3rd Quarter 2021 - Wages and salaries continue to increase at a steady pace - Crude Oil up to $83 due to tight supply - S&P 500 companies with record high profitability

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the individual consumer and the ongoing recovery. We are continuing to see personal income rise, along with disposable income going to debt payments at all-time lows. Will this continue as we head into the winter months and 2022? We are seeing the fastest recovery in permanent job losses when compared to the last 2 recessions, continued housing price growth, and solid YTD returns in the equity markets. Why are there so many “We are Hiring” signs still on every block? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - US GDP comes in at 6.7 YOY for the 2nd Quarter 2021 - Crude Oil prices hit $80 - Unemployment numbers continue to come down