Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we reflect on the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment trends from the second quarter. What was the impact on GDP as a result of the lockdown? As spending and employment rates continue to recover, what is in store for the remainder of 2020? More job openings are becoming available and temporary layoffs are returning to the workforce, but what is the trend with permanent layoffs? Consumer spending has been down since many are staying closer to home, but it seems as if stimulus spending has helped boost spending during this difficult year. What industries have seen the direct impact of restricted spending? Tune in to hear this and much more! Key Takeaways: • GDP declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2 of 2020. • Temporary layoffs have dropped, but permanent job loss has been slowly climbing • Job openings are beginning to increase • Decreased spending has led to less outstanding credit as Americans have more money to pay off loans and credit cards • Travel, real esta

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to monitor economic data as it continues to improve. Fiscal stimulus comes in many forms, like the direct payments or federal unemployment benefits, and has totaled more than 12% of GDP. What will the next bill look like from Congress and how much more money will be added to the national debt? Gold has had a strong rally as buyers speculate on future inflation and the value of the dollar. What’s to come over the next several months? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • Economic data continues to improve with retail sales, production increases, and housing data. • Stock market indices continue their recovery lead by big tech as earnings show better than expected. • Gold is rallying and another stimulus bill from Congress is coming soon.

Today on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the impact that COVID-19 has had on the U.S. job market. As a society, we have witnessed numerous recessions over the last 75 years but none quite like this. How will the uncertainty regarding Coronavirus effect unemployment over the long-term? As Americans wait to see what is next, many are sitting on more cash than usual. How is this impacting spending and has it affected stock market returns? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • COVID-19 spurred a dramatic change in unemployment numbers, different from previous recessions • Although unemployment numbers remain high, we are starting to see an increase in hiring and job openings again • We have seen an increase in mortgage delinquency but it is nowhere near 2008-09 This year has been a volatile year for all asset classes but gold and 10-year Treasuries remain on top • Corporate debt and money supply continue to climb

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we refocus on the biggest driver of the economy, consumer spending. Retail sales were up in May, auto sales are climbing back and sales of new homes returned to a level of normalcy. An upward trend in consumer spending is a sign of economic relief, however states and local governments may still have challenges ahead. How has COVID-19 affected state revenues and what is the implication for municipal bonds? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • Consumer Spending is on an upward trajectory and May data showed a big uptick in retail, auto and new home sales. • Forbearances have mostly paused, and the housing market is returning to normal even though most states still are not allowing physical showings. • State and Local governments have seen a big drop in revenue. This may point to more aid from the federal government.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, Americans have spent the last few months saving more and spending less. As spending begins to resuscitate, where are we seeing inflation in the system? We are starting to see an increase in travelers making their way through TSA but are nowhere near the 2.5 million flyers per day we saw during summer 2019. How are the airlines coping with the slower summer days? Through a volatile market, who are the current winners and losers? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • Initial jobless claims are decreasing in Colorado while some are going back to work— others are still hesitant to spend their hard-earned money • The demand for recreation services and outdoor equipment has increased prices • Home sales are picking back up as Americans are staying local • Airlines are leaning on CARES Act Support to navigate through hard times • The U.S. dollar has been losing strength in conjunction with oil prices and low interest rates

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the beginning of the end of a great social experiment. Human behaviors have changed and will continue to evolve as businesses and consumers move forward. The S&P 500 continues to separate itself from the grim economic data with positive performance. Why is there such a disconnect? One catalyst may be how quickly the Federal Reserve and Congress acted to maintain liquidity in capital markets. As we adjust to the impact of COVID-19, the markets may start focusing more on other potential volatile events, like what is going on in Hong Kong and an upcoming presidential election. Tune in to hear more!

Today on “Inside the Economy with SH&J”, we take a look at where people are investing their hard-earned money. Americans are spending less on their credit cards but are investing in real estate and home improvement projects. While some are purchasing new homes, others are struggling to make their mortgage payments. Will the missed payments have a long-term economic impact? The stock market has made a slow but steady recovery, have we seen the worst of it or is there more volatility to come? Amazon has proven it can weather the storm, but how are other retailers holding up?

This week on Inside the Economy, we begin to see the economic impact of COVID-19 in the numbers. No surprise, unemployment claims have surged. The next question we need to address is how long will people stay unemployed? The first quarter GDP readings contracted -4.8%, the most since 2008. More than likely, second quarter GDP will decline further, but the U.S. is doing relatively well compared to other countries economic decline. With earnings season wrapping up, health care, consumer staples and technology reported better than expected while other sectors struggled. Tune in to hear more!

This week on Inside the Economy, we continue to talk about the impact COVID-19 is having on the global economy. The U.S. government has interrupted the momentum of the economy asking American people to stay home. The U.S. has already injected liquidity of approximately 11% of GDP into the system. What will the final cost be? As some states gear up to start reopening certain parts of the economy, one thing is certain, there will be clear winners and losers. Tune in to hear more!

This week on Inside the Economy, we dig into the economic implications from the Coronavirus. Unemployment numbers have jumped up from their all-time low—how has the virus impacted the hiring process and what industries are seeing the biggest effects? We have seen highs and lows in the stock market this year. What is to come as we head into first quarter earnings season? We break down the CARES Act and how it reflects what the U.S. has learned from 2008. Tune in for this and more!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the sharp contraction in the markets with the S&P 500 dropping more than 30% since its all-time high on February 19th. Although it looks and feels like a recession, what economic indicators signify a true recession and when will we learn if we are living through one? How has social distancing impacted the economy and what is the Federal Reserve and government implementing in order to help ease financial stress? Find out on today’s Inside the Economy.

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we will be diving into how the Coronavirus outbreak is impacting the global markets. Will the recent volatility drive investors to safety or has this become a buying opportunity? Will there be a long-lasting impact on the global economy? The Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut in lieu of volatility—have we seen one-off rate cuts like this before? Low interest rates have homeowners flocking to refinance, but what is the effect on their bond portfolios? Cheap oil prices usually lead to increased travel, but this year jetsetters may be staying local. Tune in to hear all of this and more!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we take a look at the economic data which continues to slow. Is the coronavirus to blame or are other factors impacting global growth? The U.S. stock market is fully valued based on price to earnings ratio. Does this mean the market has reached its ceiling, or will momentum carry prices higher? In other economic data, job openings are trending lower. Tune in to find out more on this week’s Inside the Economy.

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the world’s safe haven. When countries become fearful or need a safe place to put their money can you guess where they go? Hint: it is not the country currently dominating the headlines for the Coronavirus. Speaking of the Coronavirus, this week we examine the historical impact of world epidemics on the global stock market. The results may surprise you. Last but not least, we will highlight a sector of the bond market that is in high demand, municipal bonds. Tune in to learn more.

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we dive into the major headlines of 2020 and what effect these events may have on the global economy. The Coronavirus continues to concern the population of China and there have been reported cases in over 12 countries around the world. Is this outbreak any different than what we have seen historically and what effect may it have on your portfolios? Back in the U.S., earnings from the fourth quarter are beginning to roll out, showing the U.S. continued to spend during the Christmas season. Yields are historically low, but it may be for a different reason than what the media portrays. Tune in to hear about all of this and more!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the U.S. consumer’s wealth and balance sheet. Did you know 72% of household assets are financial assets? We step back in time and study the S&P 500 index over the last seven decades. It may not be a surprise, but we are in the longest, post-war, expansion ever! As globalization becomes ever more prevalent, we end our discussion with our thoughts on global growth for 2020. Tune in to hear more. Enjoy!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss where Americans are leveraging debt and creating wealth. We know a college education is more expensive than ever, so how has this impacted student loan debt? Where is a majority of U.S. wealth held; stocks, real estate or bonds? The S&P 500 has been in the longest running bull market for the last 10 years without seeing a bear market. Will this trend continue into 2020? Tune in to find out!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss many facets of the U.S. economy, including the consumer, manufacturing, and debt situation. The average U.S. household holds less debt versus the historical average. What are consumers doing with the extra cash? As the global economy continues to slow, what effect does this have on U.S. exports? What does the decline in global car sales tell us about the broader world economy? We also take a look at the breakdown of U.S. government debt and its sustainability. Tune in to hear about all of this and more!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the recent patterns of the U.S. consumer. More than 70% percent of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending. How have lower interest rates this year impacted our spending habits, especially when it comes to housing? Debt seems to be a common four-letter word in the media, but if we break down global debt, is the situation as bad as it seems? Previously we mentioned the transition to alternative energy, but hydrocarbons are not a thing of the past, quite yet! Tune in to hear more!

On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the latest decision from the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October. Is the latest cut a mid-cycle adjustment or has a new trend emerged? How do 30 year mortgages and HELOC’s compare and contrast over time to the fed funds rate and what does it all mean? The yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury is trending towards all-time lows, but it remains much higher than other country’s debt. How can bonds have a negative yield and what are central banks trying to encourage businesses and consumers to do? Lastly, will there be a recession in 2020? Tune in to find out!