Hidden Forces

In Episode 387 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political analyst, author, and host of “Beyond the Polls,” Henry Olsen about the state of the 2024 presidential race and what to expect from what could be the most contested election in American history. Henry tells us how each candidate is performing in the key swing states and districts that will determine this election, the frequency of early voting and how it compares to 2020, and shares his views on other predictive metrics that he is paying close attention to. Henry believes that this election could be even closer than the one in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, an election that was ultimately determined by a narrow margin of 537 votes, along with a ruling by the Florida Supreme court to suspend any further recounts. The country is in a very different place today than it was two decades ago, and how any remotely similar scenario would play out this time is truly anyone’s guess. Olsen and Kofinas also discuss the economic repercussions

In Episode 386 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, Joshua Landis about two possible futures for the Middle East: The first will be defined by perpetual conflict, insecurity, and the specter of nuclear proliferation. The second would be defined by a tenuous, albeit hopeful, peace built on compromise and regional security. Professor Landis explains why he believes that this choice is now upon us and that we are at a turning point in the Middle East that provides us with a glimpse into what the future of this conflict-ridden region will look like and how it will fit into the larger global security order (or disorder) that is currently emerging. Between the first and second hours of this conversation, Dr. Landis and Kofinas discuss the wider war between Israel and Iran, the implications of the ongoing war in Lebanon, the Israeli war and occupation of Gaza, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, the future of the P

In Episode 385 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Butler, the CIO of Resolve Asset Management, an alternative asset management firm that focuses on providing cutting-edge, globally diversified, and systematic investment strategies that are non-correlated to traditional portfolios. In the first hour, we explore the structural changes that our economy has undergone since the 2008 financial crisis, along with their consequences for market accountability, monetary policy, and the stability of our political economy, all in the context of discussing Adam’s approach to financial modeling and systematic investing. In the second hour, we engage in an expansive and valuable discussion about the mind-bending progress being made in artificial intelligence, how it is already disrupting multi-trillion-dollar industries, the incredible promise that this technology holds, and the dangers that it poses to the stability of our economies and political systems. You can subscribe to our premium content and access

In Episode 384 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Elliott, the co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, a financial services firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments. Demetri asked Bob Elliott back on the podcast today to discuss the big macroeconomic story everyone’s been talking about, which is the Fed’s pivot from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market by cutting interest rates into an apparently strong economy. Bob and Demetri discuss what sorts of consequences this new policy stance may have, especially if consumers and businesses seek to take on more debt. This would move us from what has largely been an income-driven business cycle to a credit-driven one, potentially adding rocket fuel to an otherwise already strong economy. The two also discuss China's economic conditions, the importance of the recently announced stimulus, and how China’s economy matters not only to Chinese investors but also to those with no dire

In Episode 383 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with James Aitken, a financial markets veteran and advisor to many of the world’s most powerful, sophisticated, and successful investors. In the first hour, Demetri and James discuss all that has changed since Aitken was last on the podcast three years ago, which came just as the world had started to re-open from Covid and before the Fed began its very long and determined tightening cycle in the Spring of 2022. They discuss the Fed’s recent 50 basis point rate cut, its renewed focus on supporting the labor market (possibly at the expense of inflation), and why James Aitken believes this is a profound regime change in monetary policy that investors need to understand and incorporate into their investment frameworks going forward. In the second hour, Aitken and Kofinas apply the framework they developed in the first hour to help listeners understand a set of interlocking macroeconomic, political, and geopolitical challenges facing investors. These include

In Episode 382 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jacob Ware, an expert in domestic and international terrorism, counterterrorism, and assassination, about the growing U.S. assassination and terror threat ahead of the 2024 elections. Jacob and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the two recent assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump, what we know about both assassins, the breakdowns in security, and what needs to happen going forward if we want to avoid a potentially successful attempt on the former president’s life. Demetri and Jacob also discuss the growing trend in assassination attempts and compare the terror threat posed by organizations inspired by leftist ideology with that posed by right-wing extremists. In the second hour, the two discuss the terrifying threat posed by dual-use technologies and their deployment in both international and civil wars. They also discuss whether a civil war in the United States is possible, what such a war would look l

In Episode 381 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with global macro investor David Dorr about the evidence for UAP, UAP disclosure, how investors should think about UAP risk, and what effect different types of disclosures could have on their portfolios. David has been a long-time student of UAP (or what we used to call UFOs) and has continuously emphasized the need for the entire financial community to take notice of this market-impacting revelation and life-changing opportunity for humanity. In the first hour, David and Demetri discuss the history of and evidence for the UFO phenomenon, including well-documented, mass sightings experienced by both military and civilian populations in Washington D.C., Phoenix, Arizona, Colares, Brazil, Ruwa, Zimbabwe, and many other locations. They speculate on what may be the U.S. government’s agenda in tightly controlling the disclosure of information related to UAP and how to make sense of this phenomenon if you reject the premise that all of this is some kind of go

In Episode 380 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Luis Elizondo, the former head of AATIP, the U.S. Defense Department’s program for investigating UFOs (now known as unidentified anomalous phenomena or UAP), about why he and so many other scientists, researchers, and people working in military intelligence claim that we are in contact with non-human superintelligence and how the government has been hiding it for nearly a century. Luis Elizondo and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring some of the more fantastical claims stemming from work Luis Elizondo did at AATIP, including declassified information that defies conventional explanations. The evidence suggests that humanity is in contact with some form of non-human superintelligence that has access to mystifying technologies, that we are living in some sort of simulation, and/or that some of our observations about the quantum behavior of subatomic particles have macro implications that may explain what we are seeing with UAP and U

In Episode 379 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ray Nowosielski and John Duffy, the authors of The Watchdogs Didn’t Bark, a book that investigates the troubling story behind the 9/11 attacks and the War on Terror. The first hour includes a discussion about the timeline of events leading up to the 9/11 attacks, the critical meeting in Malaysia monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies in which the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole and 9/11 were organized, the CIA’s failure to provide critical information about that meeting, including the names of two hijackers who entered the United States shortly thereafter to the FBI and the White House, and what we know conclusively about the role played by agents of the Saudi government in aiding some of the 9/11 hijackers in their mission to kill thousands of Americans. In the second hour, the discussion focuses on the summer of 2001 and three critical meetings that took place at the White House, where material information about terrorist cells operating inside the U

In Episode 378 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Kerrey, the former governor of Nebraska, a U.S. senator, and a member of the 9/11 Commission, about the latest revelations regarding support for the 9/11 hijackers by Saudi Arabia and troubling details about the CIA’s actions in the lead-up to 9/11. Senator Bob Kerrey was first on the podcast in 2018, and in that conversation, he and Demetri discussed the then recently unredacted 28 pages from the congressional Joint Inquiry Report into the Intelligence Community’s Activities before and after the Terrorist Attacks of September 11th, 2001. In those 28 pages, we learned that the government of Saudi Arabia and some members of the Royal Family had provided financial, logistical, and other forms of support to at least two of the 9/11 hijackers and their associates in the months and years leading up to those attacks. In the years since those pages were declassified, additional information has come out, mainly through lawsuits filed by 9/11 family mem

In Episode 377 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Patrick Boyle. Patrick is a founding partner of quantitative hedge fund Palomar Capital, a professor of finance at King’s College London, and the host of “Patrick Boyle on Finance.” In the first hour, Patrick shares stories from his career in finance, including his time working for Victor Niederhoffer. He and Demetri discuss the market turmoil seen at the beginning of August, including potential causes and implications, and whether the secular economic forces facing Western economies are more likely to be inflationary or deflationary in the years ahead. In the second hour, Patrick and Demetri discuss whether the U.S. economy needs a new industrial policy, what that would look like in practice, and how it may backfire by stifling rather than promoting innovation. They also discuss the challenges of social media regulations, the deterioration in business ethics, the transatlantic backlash against immigration, and much more. You can subscribe to our p

In Episode 376 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jeffrey Sachs, a world-renowned economist, bestselling author, and professor at Columbia University, where he was the former director of The Earth Institute. He is also one of the most reputable critics of U.S. foreign policy and the ‘Deep State’, especially as it pertains to the ongoing war in Ukraine and U.S. relations towards Moscow since the end of the Cold War. Jeffrey Sachs last appeared on Hidden Forces in late June to discuss his criticisms of the U.S. intelligence community and American foreign policy. In Part II of that conversation, Demetri asked Dr. Sachs back on the podcast to discuss his central critique of U.S. foreign policy as it pertains primarily to the breakdown in US-Russia relations and the War in Ukraine. Sachs and Kofinas discuss much of the relevant post-cold War history, including NATO enlargement, the breakdown in arms control, the invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, and why we should assume that America’s confrontational p

In Episode 375 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nate Silver, political forecaster, poker player, and founder of FiveThirtyEight, about the 2024 U.S. elections and the battle between Silicon Valley elites and the D.C. establishment for control over the country. In the first hour, Demetri asks Nate for his views about the political battle taking place between Silicon Valley elites (VCs and tech founders) and the coastal establishment of D.C. insiders and legacy media journalists. They discuss the internecine political movements of effective altruism and accelerationism within Silicon Valley, the loss of faith in political institutions, Americans' polarizing risk preferences, and what all of this reveals about the nature and soundness of our political economy heading into the 2024 U.S. elections. In the second hour, Demetri drills Nate on the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, the tightness of the presidential race, and who he thinks is best positioned to win the presidency in November. They debate Kamal

In Episode 374 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with J. Doyne Farmer. Dr. Farmer is a complex systems scientist and entrepreneur who pioneered many of the theories and applications that we discuss today, including chaos theory, complexity science, artificial life, and wearable computing. We live in an age of increasing complexity, accelerating technological change, and global connectivity that holds more promise and peril than arguably any time in human history. Successfully navigating these changes will depend immeasurably on the quality of our economic models because, at their heart, all these changes—the changes associated with trends in automation, digitization, demographics, and financial markets—are rooted in the economy and the network of systems that keep us alive. For the first time, using big data and ever-more-powerful computers, we are now able to apply complexity science to economic activity, building realistic models of the global economy and financial markets that promise to vastly out

In Episode 373 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, about the "America First" economic agenda and how investors should think about changes to U.S. economic policy when forecasting interest rates, growth, and inflation. Jim Grant compares contemporary American politics to other periods in U.S. history, including electoral comparisons to the 2024 U.S. elections, and describes why the risks associated with two open-ended wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a third potential conflict in the Pacific are not being prudently considered by policymakers and market participants alike. Demetri and Jim also devote considerable time to analyzing Trump’s “America First” economic agenda, including his spending proposals, tariffs, tax cuts, and import duties, as well as what an America First energy policy would look like under a Trump administration if he were to retake the White House in 2025. Subscribe to our premium content to access this episo

In Episode 372 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas tries to make sense of the recent assassination attempt against Donald Trump by focusing on (1) what we know so far about what actually happened on July 13th, (2) the public’s reaction to the events of that day, and (3) the implications of the shooting for the 2024 election and the country’s future.  This monologue explores (1) deep state conspiracy theories, (2) the role of aesthetics and narrative in rewriting history, (3) dominance hierarchies and capitulation to the authority of the alpha, and (4) alternate reality games. Demetri also touches on how recent events could influence the election, the impending replacement of Joe Biden, the potential for future attacks, and the economic and geopolitical implications of a Trump presidency. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden For

In Episode 371 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Henry Olsen, author of “Working Class Republican” and host of “Beyond the Polls” about the unprecedented circumstances surrounding Joe Biden’s candidacy for the 2024 Democratic Presidential nomination, who will replace him, and why Donald Trump is well-positioned to win in 2024. Demetri and Henry Olsen examine the unprecedented circumstances surrounding Joe Biden’s recent debate performance and the pressure mounting on him to withdraw from the race, including rumors that the U.S. President may in fact have Parkinson’s disease or some other type of neurological disorder that disqualifies him from running in 2024. They speculate about who may be making policy decisions in the White House outside of the president himself, why so many Democrats and members of the press appeared surprised by the President’s debate performance, Biden’s potential replacement, and when (and how) his replacement will be chosen. In the second hour, Henry Olsen offers his opi

In Episode 370 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and the author of “Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms,” about how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints that have little to do with the structural drivers of economic and financial change. The shocks and crises of recent years are a rude awakening for executives and investors who have spent the last 40 years operating in a relatively benign macroeconomic and political environment. This period of geopolitical convergence characterized by increased trade and capital flows, lengthening business cycles, declining interest rates, and stable inflation is over, forcing corporate leaders and investors alike to recognize that macroeconomic risk is now something that needs to be actively managed. In the first hour, Demetri asks Philipp to explain his core framework of economic eclecticism, which relies on contextual flexibil

In Episode 369 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jeffrey Sachs, a world-renowned economist, bestselling author, and professor at Columbia University, where he was the former director of The Earth Institute. He is also one of the most reputable critics of U.S. foreign policy and the ‘Deep State’, especially as it pertains to the ongoing war in Ukraine and U.S. relations towards Moscow since the end of the Cold War. Demetri developed an extensive outline for this conversation, the scope of which vastly exceeded the time allotted for it. Dr. Sachs will be coming back on to complete this discussion because it is arguably one of the most important conversations that any policymaker, politician, and media pundit should be having at this moment. In the first hour of this multi-part conversation, Kofinas asks Jeffrey Sachs about his career in public policy, including his unique experience working directly with the most important foreign policy figures of the late 20th century. These figures include fmr.

In Episode 368 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Brian Janous. Brian is the Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Officer at Cloverleaf Infrastructure. With over 20 years of experience in the electricity and data center industries, Brian is the perfect person to talk to about the growth in electricity demand being forecasted by North American grid planners as they try to get ahead of several converging trends in the energy space, including the rapid buildout of AI data centers, the onshoring of new industrial capacity, and the introduction of more intermittent sources of energy like wind and solar onto the grid. The first hour begins with a conversation about electric power and what we mean when we talk about “The Grid.” What are the important pieces—both in terms of operating concerns, like private utilities and regulatory bodies, as well as physical systems like power stations, electrical substations, and transmission lines—that comprise the electric grid? How do all of these pieces come together to su